☄️ Debris & Meteoroid Impact Probability

Poisson impact probability per particle size class · area × time × altitude

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Inputs

Impact Probability over the Mission

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📖 How to use

  1. Enter the average exposed area and mission life; fluxes combine debris + micrometeoroids at the selected altitude band.输入平均暴露面积与任务寿命；通量为该高度段碎片 + 微流星之和。
  2. Sub-mm impacts are certain over time — they sandblast optics and coatings; mm-class hits can kill an unshielded box; ≥1 cm is generally unshieldable (avoidance only).亚毫米撞击随时间必然发生——损伤光学与涂层；毫米级可击穿无防护单机；≥1 cm 通常无法防护，只能规避。
  3. If mm-class probability is significant, protect critical items (Whipple bumpers, harness routing, tank placement) and orient sensitive faces away from ram.毫米级概率偏高时应保护关键部位（Whipple 缓冲屏、线缆走向、贮箱布局），敏感面避开迎风方向。
  4. Order-of-magnitude (ORDEM/MASTER-class averages); tracked-object collision avoidance is a separate operational topic.量级估计（ORDEM/MASTER 级均值）；可跟踪目标的碰撞规避属于运控范畴，另行分析。

Impact probability model

For a size class with flux F (impacts/m²·yr), impacts follow Poisson statistics: P(≥1) = 1 − e^(−F·A·T).

The debris environment peaks near 800 km and 71–74°/SSO inclinations; typical LEO impact speed ~10 km/s means a 1-mm aluminum sphere carries the energy of a rifle bullet. Fluxes here are order-of-magnitude environment averages — formal MMOD risk uses ORDEM/MASTER with geometry shadowing and ballistic limit equations.

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撞击概率模型

对通量为 F（次/m²·年）的尺寸段，撞击服从泊松统计：P(≥1) = 1 − e^(−F·A·T)。

碎片环境在约 800 km、倾角 71–74°/太阳同步附近最恶劣；LEO 典型撞击速度约 10 km/s——1 mm 铝球的动能相当于步枪子弹。此处通量为量级环境均值——正式 MMOD 风险分析需用 ORDEM/MASTER 并考虑几何遮挡与弹道极限方程。

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