Lumped-capacity transient model
One isothermal node with capacity C = m·c_p:
C·dT/dt = Q_abs(t) + Q_int − ε·σ·A·T⁴
integrated through alternating sunlit/eclipse phases. Linearizing about the mean temperature gives the thermal time constant τ = C/(4·ε·σ·A·T̄³) — the single most useful number for judging whether orbit cycling matters.
The model conservatively assumes the whole mass follows one temperature; real spacecraft distribute the swing unevenly (external panels swing most, internal boxes least).
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